​MBAF 504: Economics from a Business Perspective

​Term Paper II
Course Name and Number: ​MBAF 504: Economics from a Business Perspective
Term Paper II is prepared to check your understanding of the long run economic growth and
disparities between countries level of development based on empirical evidence. You are
expected to extract the data for this purpose of analysis from relevant credible sources. Originality
and clarity in your work is highly valued. As usual, this paper will be submitted through Turnitin to
review for plagiarism. This work accounts for 20% of your total grading of the course.
Long-run Economic Growth & Convergence
Extract the data for GDP per capita of all sovereign countries for selected years of 1960, 1990
and 2015 from global databases (like the IMF or World Bank) and perform a convergence data
analysis based on the following questions. You can use any data analysis programming language
that you are convenient with for this term paper. You can also use the programing language which
we used in the class, Gretl, accessible for free download at​ ​http://gretl.sourceforge.net​ .
1. Introduction
● Discuss Long Run Economic Growth
● Will the poor countries catch up rich countries by growing faster?
● Identify between conditional and unconditional convergence
2. Background
● Provide a summary statistics table for all countries
● Select 10 sample countries from the data (5 poor and 5 rich) and explain what important
key historic or economic factors have happened during the years under consideration and
how is this reflected in their per capita GDP? Make an economic analysis of the
characteristics of these countries under consideration.
3. Data Analysis
● Using data of GDP per capita provided in the dataset, plot histograms of GDP for all the years
between 1960 and 2018 and describe how the distribution of income evolves. If there are any
outliers, omit them. In a case where you encounter any outlier, then provide economic intuition
for evaluating these countries as outliers.
● Calculate the Growth rate of GDP per capita for each of the countries in the years under
consideration. Show boxplots of incomes for all the countries in each year. What happened? Is
there any evidence for convergence? Discuss the notions of conditional and unconditional
convergence in this regard (Hint.: Use logs instead of levels).
● Split the data into two groups of poor and rich. The split should be done according to the
median income in 1990. Then show boxplots of incomes for both groups in each year. What
happened? Is there any evidence for convergence? (Hint.: Use logs instead of levels. Start with
splitting the sample: poor in 1960, 1990 and 2018, then the same for the rich. Plot boxplots for
each).
4. Extract the GDP, investment, education, political stability or other socio-political and economic
factors for all the economies. Run the regression analysis both for the conditional and
unconditional convergence for a sample of developed countries and developed countries, each
separately and an aggregate analysis for the global economy. The selection for the development
level categories can follow regional divisions or international organization membership, etc…. (For
e.g. OECD, Western Economies, OPEC, BRICS, etc) . Plot the respective convergence analysis
scatter plots depicting the convergence behaviour. (Use the average per capita GDp growth
between 1990 and 1915 as a dependent variable and GDP growth rate in 1960 as the
independent variable for the unconditional regression analysis. For the conditional convergence,
use additional explanatory variables in addition to the GDP growth rate in 1960 ).
NB:
a) Unconditional convergence: (e.g. for the years between 1960 – 2000)
ΔGDP​
2000-1980 ​=α + βΔGDP​1960
ln
​GDP​
2000-1980 ​=α + β​ln​GDP​1960
b) Conditional convergence (e.g. for the years between 1960 – 2000)
ΔGDP​
2000-1980 ​=α + βΔGDP​1960 ​+γX​1960
where X​
1960 is a set of country-specific controls (education, fiscal and monetary policy,
competition level, etc.) – we compare countries with similar starting characteristics
5. Explanation of Economic growth and Convergence
Explain the structure of the data provided and how it characterises the countries under
consideration over the years that are taken into account. Using your own words, explain why you
believe that the poor countries in the data can (cannot) catch up the rich countries? Your argument
should be based on the convergence analysis you made from the data. You can support your
argument by citing relevant works that are in line with your analysis.
6. Conclusion
In summing up your analysis; provide a summary of the main points in your paper in connection
with the theory of long run economic growth and convergence.
The general content and flow of the paper should follow:
1. Introduction
2. Background
3. Data Analysis
4. Explanation of Economic growth and Convergence
5. Conclusion
6. References