Macro Economics

he Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said on Thursday (Jul 14) that it is taking a “further calibrated step” to tighten monetary policy amid rising inflation. It is the fourth time since October last year that MAS has tightened its monetary policy.

Core inflation is expected to rise above 4 percent in the near term. It is projected to be between 3 percent and 4 percent this year. up from the earlier forecast of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent. “Although it should ease in (the fourth quarter of) 2022. there is considerable uncertainty over the extent of the decline,” it said. “At the same time. the Singapore economy remains on track to expand at a creditable pace in 2022. though with slowing momentum.”

Overall inflationary pressures will remain elevated in the months ahead. said MAS. “Although global supply chain frictions are easing. external inflationary impulses have become more broad-based. reflecting underlying constraints in global commodity and labor markets.” the authority added. “Domestically. resilient private consumption expenditure. underpinned by the tight labor market. will lead to greater passthrough of cost pressures.” It warned that there remained “upside risks” to inflation from fresh shocks to global commodity prices and domestic wage pressures.

MTI estimates that Singapore’s economy grew 4.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year. “Slowing external growth momentum will weigh on Singapore’s trade-related sectors in the second half of the year,” said MAS. “The domestic-oriented and travel-related sectors are, however. expected to continue their recovery and support economic expansion.”

To counter rising inflation, the Government announced a S$1.5 billion support package targeted at providing immediate relief for lower-income and more vulnerable groups. The support measures in this package are tilted towards helping our lower-income and vulnerable groups because they are the ones who are disproportionately impacted by the effects of inflation.- Another reason for such targeted measures is so that the fiscal stimulus does not itself create more inflationary pressure. said Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

Malaysia halted chicken exports to Singapore on Jun 1 due to domestic price hikes and limited supply. The government implemented its export ban, which affected volumes of around 3.6 million chickens per month. to ensure that domestic needs were fully safeguarded going into the Eid al-Adha festive season. The move was meant to be short-term, in response to lower chicken production that affected prices and supply.

While it was perceived as critical to stabilizing prices within Malaysia. there was no apparent impact on the price of chicken in Malaysia initially but the ban greatly impacted Singapore. one of the key Malaysian markets for chicken export